海角社区官网

The first polls to close in the 45th general election will close in Newfoundland.听

And the riding of Central Newfoundland could offer the first hint of who will be the next prime minister. The riding, previously called Coast of Bays鈥擟entral鈥擭otre Dame, was decided in the last election with just 281 votes splitting the winner Conservative Clifford Small from Liberal Scott Sims.

Sims isn鈥檛 on the ballot again, instead, Lynette Powell, a family physician and educator, is running for the Liberals. She stood beside Liberal Leader Mark Carney in Gander, Newfoundland, when he visited early in the campaign.

In 2015, when the Liberals won their majority, they swept every seat in Atlantic Canada. Last October, the party was 12 points or more behind the Conservatives according to polling from Abacus Data. The most recent poll from Abacus shows that lead has essentially flipped, with the Liberals now up by 10 percentage points.听 听

If Central Newfoundland flips back to the Liberals, it could be a sign of more to come across Atlantic Canada.听听

Miramichi鈥擥rand Lake听

The New Brunswick riding of Miramichi-Grand Lake has long flipped between blue and red. In 2015, when Justin Trudeau鈥檚 Liberals swept Atlantic Canada, the riding returned to the red tent and remained there until 2021. That鈥檚 when the Conservatives launched former New Brunswick minister Jake Stewart into the riding听鈥� and won.听

Miramichi-Grand Lake was leaning Conservative again in the weeks leading up to the election call. But Stewart, a close Atlantic ally of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, became implicated in a series of media reports in which former staffers听alleged concerns with his conduct, and he stepped down.

The result? A toss-up riding that could favour the Liberals once more.

罢谤辞颈蝉-搁颈惫颈猫谤别蝉

True three-way races are rare in Canadian politics, but this town on the north shore of the St. Lawrence between Montreal and Quebec City, has regularly been a race between the Liberals, Conservatives and听Bloc Qu茅b茅cois.

In the 2021 election, the gap between the first place Bloc Qu茅b茅cois candidate Ren茅 Villemure and the third place Liberal candidate was 416 votes with only 83 votes separating Villemure from the Conservative candidate Yves L茅vesque.

Villemure is attempting to hold onto his seat and L茅vesque is again hoping to take the seat for the Conservatives. The Liberals are offering up former diplomat Caroline Desrochers. No Liberal government, let alone a majority is possible without the party getting a substantial number of Quebec鈥檚 78 seats. When Justin Trudeau took the party to a majority government in 2015, it included 40 Quebec seats, but 罢谤辞颈蝉-搁颈惫颈猫谤别蝉 still remained out of grasp.听

Bloc Leader Yves-Fran莽ois Blanchet has been making the case to his supporters in recent days that with Carney likely to win, people can afford to come back to his party.听

Abacus Data鈥檚 latest poll gives the Liberals a three-point lead over the Bloc in Quebec, but that number has been sliding downward, it was a seven-point lead just a week ago.听

Abacus surveyed 2,000 people in that latest poll from April 18 to 21, which showed the three-point lead for the Liberals in Quebec. A similar random sample would produce a margin of error of 2.3 per cent 19 times out of 20.听

Milton East鈥擧alton Hills South

After years of rapid population growth in the 海角社区官网suburb, Milton is now split into two seats and one of Doug Ford鈥檚 former cabinet ministers Parm Gill hopes to claim it for Poilievre.听听

Gill was the minister of red tape reduction in Ford鈥檚 cabinet, before he announced his resignation in early 2024 so he could seek the federal seat. Gill was an MP in nearby Brampton鈥擲pringdale from 2011 to 2015. Local lawyer Kristina Tesser Derksen is running for the Liberals.听听

Gill鈥檚 departure from Ford鈥檚 cabinet was one of many points of tension between Poilievre and Ford’s provincial Conservatives. Those tensions burst into the spotlight during the campaign with Ford鈥檚 campaign manager Kory Teneycke accusing the Poilievre team of 鈥渃ampaign malpractice.鈥� Ford insisted he supports the federal Conservatives, but said Teneycke鈥檚 opinion should be valued.听

With no incumbent and an entirely new map, the riding is difficult to predict; it includes parts of the former Milton riding, which sent Liberal Adam van Koeverden to Parliament and Wellington Halton Hills, which reliably sent Conservative Michael Chong to Ottawa.听听

Markham Unionville听

For the Liberals, Markham-Unionville was a long sought after riding, one of the few patches of Conservative Blue in a sea of red across the GTA.听

When Trudeau won his majority in 2015, the Liberals were kept out of this riding just north of Toronto. That changed in 2021 when Liberal Paul Chiang won the riding for the party over Conservative Bob Saroya. Chiang was set to try and hold onto the riding, but resigned in the early days of the election after it was revealed he told people they could collect a bounty at the Chinese consulate for another Conservative candidate Joe Tay. Tay was a democracy activist in Hong Kong and Chinese authorities have put up a reward for his arrest.

Following Chiang’s resignation, the Liberals brought in听Peter Yuen, a former 海角社区官网deputy police chief. His candidacy also raised questions about foreign interference after the Globe and Mail revealed he had attended events in Beijing at the invitation of China’s Communist Party.听

Windsor West听

U.S. President Donald Trump鈥檚 trade war with Canada is doing major damage in Windsor West.听

The tariffs Trump has imposed on the Canadian auto industry hit first in Windsor, with the layoff of nearly 4,000 workers for two weeks earlier this month. Those workers are now back on the job, but the tariffs threaten the entire industry across southwestern Ontario.听

NDP candidate Brian Masse has represented the riding for more than two decades, after first being elected in 2002 and surviving all seven elections since.听

But some of those contests have been closer than others and the Liberals hope that the Trump threat can help them win the riding. To that end, they are running a foe from Masse鈥檚 past, local lawyer Richard Pollock who ran against him in the 2002 campaign.听

Carney came to the community to announce a new $2 billion fund for the auto sector, but NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has also visited and promised to stand with workers.

But the dagger still hangs over the community, as Trump emphasized again on Thursday, that he is prepared to raise tariffs on cars made outside the U.S.听

Abbotsford鈥擲outh Langley

This freshly-created B.C. riding is flush with the Canada-U.S. border听鈥� and among one of the regions in the province most vulnerable to American tariffs. That alone has made it a riding to watch in an election where Trump has taken centre stage.

But the riding, held by the Conservatives under the previous boundaries, could potentially change hands thanks to Poilievre鈥檚 team.

That鈥檚 because Conservatives rejected the candidacy of longtime B.C. MLA Mike de Jong in favour of Sukhman Gill, a 25-year-old political newcomer. The decision divided local Conservatives over whether they will back Gill or de Jong, who is running as an independent. Ed Fast, the retiring Conservative incumbent in the area, hasn鈥檛 helped matters by endorsing de Jong and sharply criticizing his party for 鈥渁llowing faceless party officials鈥� to parachute in candidates.听

The Liberals are hoping this tension will allow them to rise through the middle with their candidate, a former reporter in the community, Kevin Gillies.

Desneth茅鈥擬issinippi鈥擟hurchill River

In one of the biggest ridings in the country, the Liberals are hoping to put themselves back on the electoral map in a province that has shut them out for two straight campaigns.听

They were shut out in Saskatchewan in the 2021 and 2019 elections and took just one seat in the 2015 election, as Ralph Goodale, now Canada’s high commissioner in London, held his seat.听

Desneth茅鈥擬issinippi鈥擟hurchill River was altered in the most recent boundary realignment shrinking the total number of voters and slightly altering the demographics of the riding, making it one largely of Indigenous communities.听

The Liberals are hoping to take the riding with听Harold “Buckley” Belanger, a former provincial politician who sat in the Saskatchewan legislature as both a New Democrat and a Liberal. He is being challenged by Conservative Jim Lemaigre, another former provincial politician and NDP candidate Doug Racine, a lawyer and military veteran.听

All three parties have held the seat at one point over the last two decades.听

Edmonton Southeast听

When Trudeau exited the stage many Liberals, who had decided to step down, rethought their decision and decided to run for the party again.听

Anita Anand in Oakville, Sean Fraser in Nova Scotia, Wayne Long in New Brunswick are among many Liberals who came back to run under Mark Carney.

Amarjeet Sohi left federal politics in 2019, after failing to win his seat in Alberta’s capital city 鈥� a seat he won in 2015 with a razor-thin 92-vote margin. A former Trudeau minister, he lost to Conservative MP Tim Uppal, the same person he bested in 2015.听

But Sohi did not leave politics entirely, running and winning a race to become Edmonton’s mayor in 2021. He is on leave from his role while he contests the vote in Edmonton Southeast.听

Sohi is running against lawyer and Conservative newcomer听Jagsharan Singh Mahal.

Three leaders, three ridings

A leader’s riding in a federal election is usually a foregone conclusion, but on election night it will be worth watching Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh’s ridings closely.听

Carney is running for office for the first time in the suburban Ottawa riding of Nepean, a riding he picked to run in only a few days before kicking off the election at Rideau Hall. His challenger听鈥� Conservative Barbara Bal 鈥� has deep roots in the community as an Ottawa police officer and a reservist in the Canadian Armed forces.

The Liberals held the riding before the election, but disqualified the sitting MP Chandra Arya from running again for reasons that were never announced.听

Next door to Nepean, is Poilievre’s long-held riding of Carleton. Poilievre has been a member of Parliament for 20 years, with his riding boundaries switching a few times during that tenure. The 海角社区官网Star reported this week that the Conservative party has pushed additional resources to Carleton over concerns his victory may not be locked down.听

Ontario polls show the Liberals with a substantial lead in the province and Poilievre’s riding is home to many civil servants who might fear potential cuts.

Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy has been knocking on doors for months trying to take Poilievre’s seat.

The Conservatives told the Star that while they take nothing for granted, they fully expect Poilievre to remain the MP for Carleton.听

The toughest battle for a major party leader is likely in Singh’s British Columbia riding Burnaby Central. The NDP have seen support crater this election, hovering below 10 per cent in most national polls.听

The riding’s boundaries were changed in the redistribution that brought the House of Commons up to 343 seats. Burnaby Central took on more Liberal friendly areas, but the bigger issue for Singh is his party’s national decline.听