As the federal campaign enters its final days, Mark Carney’s Liberals appear set to win a majority Monday, according to the Star’s poll aggregator, the Signal.
While Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have closed the gap nationally in terms of voter preference, that does not seem to be translating into additional seats for the official opposition party.
“One thing you see is this flat line (in support) for the Conservatives in Ontario,” said Clifton van der Linden, a McMaster University political science professor and the CEO of Vox Pop Labs, the independent research organization that developed the Signal, which analyzes publicly available polling data in a supercomputer.
As election day nears, federal party leaders put a focus on what their priorities will be coming out of the campaign. Liberal Leader Mark Carney visited a steel mill in Sault Ste. Marie, Ont. to focused on his response to U.S. tariff threats. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre campaigned on his anti-crime platform in Saskatoon. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh stopped in º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøwhere he said there will be a review of the campaign suggesting unpredictable things like President Donald Trump's tariffs played a role in the NDP's fortunes. (April 25, 2025 / The Canadian Press)
“They were just not able to regain any of the ground that they had before Justin Trudeau resigned,” said van der Linden, referring to the former Liberal prime minister who retired seven weeks ago.
“The Conservatives saw a decline in their vote share. It’s levelled out throughout the election campaign and there’s been no movement,” the professor said.
“When we see the race narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals, it’s not because the Conservatives are picking up votes in places like Ontario,” he said.
The latest polls on Mark Carney, Pierre Poilievre, Jagmeet Singh and other federal party
“The Liberal decline (nationally) is coming at the expense of a small bump in the NDP vote share in Ontario and it’s coming at the expense of the Bloc in Quebec. So these are not Liberal losses that are a function of Conservative gains.”
On Friday, Carney’s Liberals were at 40.5 per cent support and on track to eke out a narrow majority with 175 seats in the 343-member House of Commons.
Poilievre’s Tories were at 39.7 per cent and projected to win 128 seats.
Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats were at 9.2 per cent and 10 seats, while Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois was at 6.4 per cent and 28 seats.
The Greens of co-leaders Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pedneault were at 1.8 per cent and two seats, while Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada was at 1.3 per cent and no seats.
In the middle of an election, you’re probably hearing about polls all the time. But how exactly do polls work? º£½ÇÉçÇø¹ÙÍøStar’s Michelle Mengsu Cheng breaks down how to read a poll, what insight can be gained from looking at them, and whether they can or can’t be trusted.
On Jan. 1, the week before Trudeau announced he was quitting, the Signal had the Tories at 46.9 per cent support, the NDP at 18.7 per cent, the Liberals at 18.6 per cent, the Bloc at 9.7 per cent and the Greens at 2.7 per cent.
While the Signal projects Poilievre’s riding of Carleton is a “safe” Tory seat, the Star first reported Wednesday that his campaign is scrambling to funnel resources to ensure the 21-year MP leader wins his constituency.
“Actions sometimes speak louder than words,” said van der Linden, noting Carleton had the highest advance voter turnout of any riding in the country and the Tories have hastily organized a last-minute rally there Sunday.
“Maybe they have internal polling and those are the numbers that party strategists are really going to focus on, not national swing models,” he said.
“The way that all the polling aggregators work in terms of riding level projections is that they typically in their models give an incumbency boost, so Poilievre gains from that. They also have a star candidate boost, so Poilievre gains from that. So no wonder all the polls and poll aggregators are saying that Carleton is a safe seat.”
But van der Linden stressed there are “difficulties or uncertainties predicting these very, very bespoke riding-level dynamics” as are being seen in Carleton where a protest group has added dozens of names to the ballot.
“Given the emphasis that the party has on securing that riding and on campaigning in that riding, it suggests perhaps that they have some riding-level data that’s prompted this action,” he said.
The Liberals, meanwhile, are also pouring in staff to try to make Grit challenger Bruce Fanjoy a giant killer.
“Poilievre’s riding of Carleton had the highest advance voter turnout in the country. That looks ominous,” crowed an internal Liberal email touting the fact 43,494 people voted in the advance polls there over the Easter long weekend.
“Keep in mind his is an Ottawa-area riding — lots of civil servants who are concerned about his commitment to reduce size of government,” the missive said.
Overall in Ontario, the Signal said the Liberals were at 45.5 per cent and expected to win 79 of the province’s 122 ridings.
The Tories were at 40.3 per cent and 39 seats, the New Democrats were at 10.1 per cent and three seats while the Greens were at 1.7 per cent and one seat.
At the dissolution of Parliament on March 23, the Liberals held 152 seats, the Tories 120, the Bloc 33, the NDP 24 and the Greens two. There were three Independents and four vacancies in the 338-seat Commons, which is expanding by five ridings due to population growth.
With files from Kristin Rushowy
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