In 2019, hundreds of thousands of Canadians marched in the streets, calling for stronger action on climate change. Since then, public attention has declined in the wake of COVID, inflation, and now U.S. tariffs. Climate change itself has not subsided, however, as demonstrated by a stream of shattered temperature and wildfire records.
In 2025, voters inattentive to climate could well elect a government that pursues climate policies they do not support.
We have compared the climate positions of the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP, the national parties most likely to form or support the next government. We anticipate that emissions would continue to decline under a Liberal government and increase under a Conservative one.
With less than a week to go until election day, Canada's five main political parties have released their costed platforms. Canadian Press reporter Dylan Robertson walks through some of what the parties are pitching to voters. (April 26, 2025 / The Canadian Press)
Paris Agreement targets
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has dodged questions about a Conservative government’s commitment to Canada’s existing Paris Agreement targets. Liberal Leader Mark Carney — a former UN climate envoy — has not questioned Canada’s 2030 or 2035 targets. The NDP has called for tightening the 2035 emissions reduction target by five per cent.
Carbon pricing
None of the parties is proposing to reinstate the consumer carbon tax which was repealed on April 1. The industrial carbon pricing system is a different matter.
In the current system, industrial polluters pay a carbon tax if their emissions exceed sector-specific performance benchmarks. According to the Canadian Climate Institute, industrial carbon pricing is the policy expected to deliver the largest emissions reductions this decade and at minimal cost to consumers or risk of companies leaving Canada (thanks to those performance benchmarks).Ìý
The Liberals and NDP both have promised to maintain the industrial carbon pricing backstop, which the federal government threatens to implement unless provinces adopt equivalent policies of their own.
The Conservative party has promised to eliminate the federal backstop. Without it, provinces that adopted industrial carbon pricing under threat of federal intervention may abandon their own policies or at least the federally scheduled price increases. Indeed, Saskatchewan pre-emptively repealed its industrial pricing system, following the Conservative party’s announcement.
Regulating emissions
Oil and gas production is responsible for the largest share of Canada’s national emissions. Liberals have committed to strengthen methane regulations for the oil and gas sector, and to adopt the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, a policy the NDP also supports. A Conservative government would do neither.
Transportation is the next largest share of Canadian emissions. The Liberals are promising investments in EV charging infrastructure, while the NDP has called for renewed EV rebates. Conservatives would go in the opposite direction, repealing the mandate for 100 per cent of new passenger vehicle sales to be electric by 2035.Ìý
The Conservative Party has committed to repeal other climate policies as well, including the clean fuel regulations and the clean electricity regulations. All told, the climate policies the Conservatives would either repeal or not follow through on account for roughly by 2030.
Public spending
The parties all have committed to climate spending but for different recipients. The Conservatives propose to replace carbon pricing with tax credits to reduce costs of industrial emissions reductions. But absent regulations or a carbon price, it is not clear why industrial polluters would choose to contribute any share of the costs of emissions reductions.Ìý
The Liberal party promises to implement six planned tax credits for clean technologies, including carbon capture, backstopped by carbon pricing. In addition, the party proposes low- and middle-income housing, to be funded by reforms of industrial carbon pricing.
The NDP have proposed $18 billion over 10 years for home retrofits to be funded by eliminating fossil fuel subsidies.
Canada’s economic future
The federal election is focused, understandably, on Canada’s economic future. However, global efforts to mitigate climate change also have implications for Canada’s economic future. The International Energy Agency’s most recent World Energy Outlook anticipates a peak in global demand for both oil and gas by 2030, reflecting a transition from fossil to renewable energy.
The Conservative party is all in on oil and gas, including demand to repeal the Impact Assessment Act and the North Pacific tanker ban, cancel the oil and gas emissions cap, expedite approval of new export pipelines and LNG terminals, and provide loan guarantees for Indigenous resource development.
The party does not acknowledge the possibility of declining global demand during the life of new fossil fuel infrastructure or the effect on workers and communities.
The Liberals stress the importance of emissions reductions for the competitiveness of Canadian oil and gas but also emphasize clean growth opportunities, including an east-west electricity grid, critical minerals, batteries, and high-speed rail. Although the Liberal platform does not mention pipelines, during the campaign the leader expressed support for transporting Canadian oil eastward to displace U.S. imports, a contrast to Conservative calls for export-focused pipelines as well.
In contrast, Jagmeet Singh has stated that pipelines are “not a priority,” for the NDP, which is calling for an east-west electricity grid and 100 per cent non-emitting electricity by 2045.
The Liberals also promised sustainable investment guidelines, and a carbon border adjustment mechanism to protect the competitiveness of Canadian industry, a tool that .
Summary
The political parties have presented dramatically different visions for Canada’s climate goals, and economic future.
The Conservative party promises to repeal almost all of Canada’s climate policies with no credible plan to make up the lost emissions reductions. C. The Liberal party would retain and, in some cases, strengthen policies that promise emissions reductions by 2030 and beyond. Should the election yield a Liberal minority, the government would find support for that approach from the NDP and presumably also the Green Party.
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