Doug Ford didn鈥檛 swing the federal election, but there was no mistaking his Ontario tilt.
From his provincial perch, the premier waded into the campaign in ways few could have predicted. Ford鈥檚 public musings and private conclusions foretold the fate of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.
As Canada鈥檚 most powerful Tory (before, during and now after the campaign), it鈥檚 fair to say Ford had a falling out with his federal counterparts听鈥 his fellow Tories. It鈥檚 hard not to notice that he never once appeared publicly with Poilievre (even before the campaign), while he found time to connect with Liberal Leader Mark Carney on the eve of the election call.
It quickly became clear that the enemy (Carney) of his erstwhile ally (Poilievre) is now a political friend. Ford let everyone in Ontario know that he had cooled to Poilievre and warmed to Carney听鈥 who will now be his political partner as prime minister.
Ford made his influence felt by deciding to ground the Ontario Tory electoral machine, leaving Poilievre鈥檚 federal campaign cut off from a concerted, province-wide push. The premier proclaimed that his provincial Tories must spend all their time safeguarding Ontario from the American threat rather than dabbling in the federal election.
But there were two notable exceptions, which every Tory took note of.
The first exception (or transgression) arose when Caroline Mulroney听鈥 the low-profile provincial cabinet minister with a high-profile surname听鈥 pointedly and peremptorily ignored Ford鈥檚 admonition by introducing Poilievre with lavish praise at a posh breakfast campaign event. Hmmm.
The second departure from this protocol came from the premier himself. He famously held a folksy breakfast rendezvous with the Liberal leader at Wally鈥檚 Grill, a photo-op dutifully photographed and diligently posted online by the premier鈥檚 digitally-inclined team on the eve of the campaign.
Message sent. Even if Mulroney didn鈥檛 get the memo or read the writing on the wall.
But there鈥檚 more to this tale of two political breakfasts and two menus. It鈥檚 fair to say that Ford and Carney took the measure of one another and found each other a good fit.
They would do business together, they could even play politics together. For the good of country and province, not to mention one another.
And so when Ford鈥檚 successful but irrepressible campaign manager, Kory Teneycke, called out 鈥渢he basic unlikability of Poilievre right now,鈥 and warned that 鈥渉e sounds too much like (Donald) Trump,鈥 Ford sided with him.
鈥淭o be very frank, if Kory was running that campaign, I don鈥檛 think Mr. Poilievre would be in the position he is in right now,鈥 the premier mused.
That was a cutting reference to Poilievre鈥檚 campaign manager, Jenni Byrne, who once worked in the premier鈥檚 office before being sidelined by Ford. Byrne鈥檚 take-no-prisoners persona melded with Poilievre鈥檚 pugnacity and aloofness to antagonize a wary Ford team.
It鈥檚 political but also personal. Long after becoming federal Tory leader, Poilievre still hadn鈥檛 bothered to reach out听鈥 until his hour of need last month when, losing his lead over the Liberals, he finally called Ford for 鈥渁dvice.鈥 As first reported by my colleague Robert Benzie, it was an awkward conversation that failed to heal the rift between the two estranged Tories.
鈥淗e said, 鈥榃hat advice can I get,鈥欌 Ford recounted last week to Politico, describing how he urged Poilievre to pivot away from outdated attacks on former PM Justin Trudeau鈥檚 carbon tax and to start turning his guns fully on Trump鈥檚 tariffs. So why was Poilievre so slow to change his attack tactics?
鈥淚 can鈥檛 figure it out,鈥 Ford confessed to Politico. Nor could he fathom why the federal Tory leader didn鈥檛 reach out to him earlier, or to others: 鈥淚 don鈥檛 understand it.鈥
The rise and fall of Poilievre stands in sharp contrast to Ford鈥檚 political longevity and, perhaps, his agility. His manoeuvres before and during the federal election are a reminder of the mercurial and unpredictable premier鈥檚 penchant for finding common ground with Liberal adversaries amid turf wars with fellow Tories.
Not just common ground, but a common base of grassroots supporters. As the premier never tires of telling his team, many of the same people who voted for Trudeau鈥檚 Liberals federally also voted for Ford鈥檚 Tories provincially.
That鈥檚 why Ford and Trudeau set aside their differences after realizing, belatedly, that they could and should work together. Not just on the pandemic exigencies of the past, but the economic investments of the future, frequently partnering on new manufacturing plants.
Ford advised Trudeau, not just publicly but privately, to dump the carbon tax. The former PM never took that advice, but Carney quickly did听鈥 and seems more willing to reach out and respond to Ford鈥檚 private counsel, unlike the more grudging Poilievre.
Now, post-election, Ford is poised to profit politically from the outcome. All of Ontario may be the better for it.
By nurturing a personal alliance with Carney鈥檚 Liberals, Ford opted to secure the province鈥檚 economic interest alongside his own political self-interest. Ontario may be rewarded for its loyalty, rather than face retribution for infidelity had the election result gone the other way 鈥 the Tory way.
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