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Two other federal Conservative sources, both of whom are not working directly on the national campaign, said Poilievre’s team has reached out to party supporters looking for volunteers to help because of fears that the leader’s victory may not be assured, with one source suggesting Poilievre could lose his seat.

A spokesperson for Poilievre’s campaign said in a statement that the Star was “misinformed.”

“No riding is ever taken for granted but we are confident Pierre Poilievre will be returned to Parliament to represent Carleton,” the statement read.

“As I’m sure you can understand, there are many politically engaged volunteers and staff across the capital region. They are being聽distributed across Ottawa ridings.”

One of the sources not directly involved in the campaign said remarks made recently by Ian Brodie, former chief of staff to former prime minister Stephen Harper, at an Ottawa conference talking about how Poilievre could make cuts to the public service were “not helpful.” The source said neither were recent comments made by Kory Teneycke, Premier Doug Ford’s campaign manager, who has sharply criticized the Conservatives’ federal campaign for failing to adequately pivot to the threats posed by U.S. President Donald Trump, among other concerns.

The federal Conservatives have seen their considerable lead in public opinion polls over the Liberals vanish since the March 23 election call, which coincided with the crowning of new Liberal Leader Mark Carney and an escalating trade dispute with the U.S.聽

The Signal, the Star’s polling aggregator, has listed Carleton as a safe seat for the Conservatives.聽

At Queen鈥檚 Park, Progressive Conservative operatives, also speaking confidentially to discuss internal deliberations, said Conservative party war room staff have been instructed to aid efforts in Carleton. Sources said they have been told they must do at least one shift per week canvassing in the largely rural and suburban riding.

Staff working on Carleton Liberal candidate Bruce Fanjoy’s campaign, meanwhile, have told the Star that constituents have informed them of Conservative volunteers canvassing the riding from as far away as Calgary.

The Signal shows the federal Liberals lead in Ontario with 50.4 per cent support, to 39.4 per cent for the Tories, an 11 percentage point deficit for Poilievre鈥檚 party in the province.

In the Feb. 27 Ontario election, the Progressive Conservatives won the riding’s provincial counterpart with 49.6 per cent of the vote, while the Liberals were second with 38.6 per cent.

But Teneycke has pointed out that that victory came when the provincial Tories were leading by more than 13 percentage points over the Liberals.

In Ford鈥檚 internal polling released to the Star last month, the data painted a grim picture for the federal Tories in the city of Ottawa.

Campaign Research found the Liberals at 50 per cent support in the capital, compared to 23 per cent for the Tories, 17 per cent for the NDP, five per cent for the Greens and four per cent for the People鈥檚 Party of Canada (PPC).

A senior Liberal campaign organizer also told the Star on the condition they not be named that the 10-12 point polling advantage that Poilievre had in his riding of Carleton a few weeks ago has been “halved.”

“It’s tighter now than it was before,” the source said, adding, “We have a shot there.”

But the Liberal source said it will be hard to knock Poilievre off.

While Fanjoy has mounted a two-year bid to unseat Poilievre, the Conservatives have an advantage in the form of the People’s Party of Canada no longer running a candidate in Carleton, reducing the chances of the Tories losing votes to another right-leaning party.

Carleton, which borders the Nepean riding where Carney is running, has also become the target of the Longest Ballot initiative, a protest movement aimed at drawing attention to electoral reform, which has led to a total of 91 candidates appearing on the riding’s ballot.聽