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For Mark Carney and the Liberals, the English-language debate on Thursday was a chance to protect a narrow national lead; for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives, it was one of the last set-piece moments to flip the script before ballots are cast. So how did Canadians judge the clash and did the evening change anyone鈥檚 mind?

Abacus Data conducted a flash poll to gauge reaction. From 8:30 to 10 p.m. ET, we interviewed 1,200 Canadians whose primary language is English; 602 said they watched all or some of the debate.

Among debate viewers, 40 per cent judged Liberal Leader Carney to have delivered the strongest overall performance; 43 per cent said Poilievre came out on top, while 11 per cent gave the nod to Jagmeet Singh. At the other end of the scale, 29 per cent felt Pierre Poilievre had the weakest outing.

The headline number matters, but the intensity gap is what campaigns watch: 59 per cent said Carney鈥檚 debate performance left them with a positive impression, compared with 53 per cent who felt that way about Poilievre. If these initial perceptions hold, they suggest the Liberal leader not only won more fans but generated deeper enthusiasm 鈥� crucial for getting supporters to advance polls this weekend.

Did the debate actually move votes?

Flash polls are uniquely suited to measure intention shifts because they catch voters before next-day punditry reframes the narrative. In our sample, 23 per cent of viewers said the debate made them 鈥渞econsider鈥� their vote choice; 73 per cent claimed it 鈥渃onfirmed鈥� their existing preference. Only four per cent of viewers said the debate changed their vote.

What鈥檚 Next

For Pierre Poilievre, the path to victory now runs through two tasks: lowering Carney鈥檚 personally favourable ratings and reinflating the 鈥渢ime for a change鈥� sentiment that sagged since Justin Trudeau鈥檚 exit. Thursday鈥檚 debate offered an opportunity to do both and he spent a lot of time trying to. So far, evidence is that it hasn鈥檛 worked. The Conservative war room will hope repetition does what one debate could not: stitch economic anxiety to a desire for change that will cast doubt about Carney.

Carney鈥檚 challenge is simpler but no less risky: protect the narrow national edge and sprawling regional map the Liberals currently command. That means avoiding unforced errors while reinforcing an image of pragmatic steadiness.

Easter dinner tables will hum with talk of grocery bills, mortgage renewals and whether Canada can stay clear-eyed under an unpredictable neighbour. If Carney鈥檚 calm persona becomes the shorthand answer to that question, his party will enter the final 10-day sprint with the wind at their backs.

By Monday, we鈥檒l have more numbers from another survey we are launching to confirm or refute these impressions. For now, the early signals suggest the English debate did not rewrite the race but likely nudged it a shade further in the Liberals鈥� favour 鈥� turning a campaign that was already Mark Carney鈥檚 to lose into one that, barring late-breaking turbulence, he seems increasingly poised to win.

Methodology

The survey was conducted with 1,200 adult Canadians whose primary language is English from 8:30 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. ET on April 17, 2025. A random sample of panellists were invited to complete the survey from a set partner panel based on the Lucid exchange platform.

The margin of error for a comparable probability based random sample of the same size is plus or minus 2.9 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Canada鈥檚 population according to age, gender, educational attainment and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

David Coletto is founder and CEO of polling firm Abacus Data.