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Inside the blue tent, Conservatives appear divided on how to answer those questions, according to several who spoke to the Star on Tuesday. While the Tories increased their seat count more than any other party, posting breakthroughs in the GTA and elsewhere in Ontario where they sought to make key gains, they nevertheless failed to unseat the governing Liberals and stop the rise of Mark Carney amid the collapse of the NDP. 

“I know a lot of people are trying to sugarcoat it, but at the end of the day, it’s an unmitigated disaster,” a veteran Conservative source told the Star.

“We gave (the Liberals) yet another term. People didn’t choose change. Poilievre lost his own seat. It’s pathetic.”

But another Conservative source, one directly involved with the campaign, told the Star there is still a sense of optimism within the party, which grew and diversified its base of supporters throughout the campaign.

Former Conservative leader, and re-elected Tory MP Andrew Scheer came out in defence of the embattled Poilievre on Tuesday, writing on X that Poilievre’s “inspirational leadership has brought more people into the Conservative movement” and that his “continued leadership will ensure we finish the job next time.” 

Shannon Stubbs, another veteran Conservative MP re-elected in Alberta, also praised Poilievre on social media, rattling off the leader brought the party at the close of the race.

“Pierre Poilievre leads with consistent principles and conviction,” Stubbs wrote.

Poilievre himself signalled in his concession speech that he intended to stick around. But that was before he learned he would no longer be returning to the Commons.

“I think Pierre’s a loser. He’s never been elected when he’s the leader of the party, right? Like he was elected under Stephen Harper, under Andrew Scheer, and under Erin O’Toole when they were the leader. When he was the leader, he couldn’t even get himself elected,” the veteran party source said.

That source outlined a stark future for the leader: that he should immediately resign, and that the Conservatives’ loss is tied to Poilievre’s personality, and not his policies, which are well-regarded in Conservative circles. 

”He’s divisive. He’s polarizing. He’s so aggressive. And he drove people that would have ordinarily voted for other political parties to the Liberal party. That’s not a winning strategy for us,” the source said.

Another Conservative source, who agreed to speak candidly on condition they aren’t named, said many party insiders are “shell-shocked” and “demoralized” after Poilievre lost his own riding. The source called it a “huge setback” that “never should have happened,” and argued it raises questions about how Poilievre and his team organized their losing campaign over the past five weeks. 

The source said there does not appear to be any significant push to remove Poilievre as leader, but predicted he could be in trouble if he does not show a willingness to change his team, strategy and tone in response to Monday’s defeat.  

Yet another Conservative source added that Poilievre’s team should be concerned about signs voters have a negative impression of the Conservative leader, meaning it would be a mistake to assume the election was lost because an external issue — U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic aggression — lifted the Liberals to victory. 

“His negatives are quite high, so if you keep him, you have to figure out a way to deal with that,” the source said. 

But the Conservative source directly involved with the campaign told the Star that there is little appetite for Poilievre’s resignation, and that they would like to see the leader find a new seat to return him to the lower chamber where he shines.

To do that, a Tory MP in an easily winnable riding would need to relinquish their seat, triggering a byelection that would see Poilievre run in their place.

On top of clinching a seat, Poilievre could face tests of his leadership when Parliament returns and the Conservative caucus decides whether to grant itself powers under the Reform Act. That legislation, passed in 2014, allows party caucuses in the House to vote on whether to grant themselves authority to remove leaders by a vote of MPs, and to choose their interim replacement. 

Under the Conservative party constitution, Poilievre will also need to face a leadership review vote at the next Tory convention, which is supposed to happen before the end of the year. That constitution also decrees that any Conservative party leader who is not a member of Parliament “shall, upon written request to the chair of Conservative Fund Canada, be entitled to receive a salary equivalent to that of a Member of Parliament.”

Jeff Ballingall, the president of Mobilize Media Group and founder of conservative media groups Canada Proud and Ontario Proud, told the Star that because of the Conservatives’ history of invoking the Reform Act to oust leaders — like O’Toole in 2022 — Poilievre will need to tread carefully.

“The leader’s going to have to ... showcase some contrition and then showcase his plan, and if he does that, he’ll be in a much safer position internally,” Ballingall said.

Ballingall also said that Poilievre’s campaign should reflect on how it could have made better use of all members of its team, including candidates and incumbent MPs. 

A common thread throughout the campaign was a resistance towards allowing candidates to speak to media at events, and restricting traditional outlets’ access to the leader.

“I think there’s a lot of value in trying to reach and persuade people who might not necessarily be receptive to Pierre” but would be receptive to somebody else, Ballingall said.