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The show of patriotism at the Canada Strong and Free Conference, billed as the biggest conservative networking event in the country, followed weeks of criticism from those who say Smith has been undermining Canadian unity 鈥� cozying up to Donald Trump at Mar A Lago, telling a right-wing outlet that she鈥檇 urged the president to pause tariffs that were helping the Liberals and then 鈥渘ational unity crisis鈥� should Liberal leader Mark Carney win and not meet her demands on energy-related issues.聽

And Smith hasn鈥檛 been the only one to clearly signal that the West is unhappy with the prospect of a Liberal victory in the upcoming federal election. Earlier this month, Preston Manning, a grandfather of Western conservatism and founder of the Reform Party 鈥� which debuted 鈥淭he West Wants In鈥� as a slogan almost 40 years ago 鈥� called Carney鈥檚 rapid ascent a 鈥渢hreat to national unity鈥� in an opinion piece another columnist argued had the vibe of a ransom note.聽

The message of Smith鈥檚 pedicure was pointed 鈥� but it hasn鈥檛 silenced the talk of separatism now floating in the prairie air.

So how did we get here?

For almost as long as Alberta has been part of Canada, there have been angry Albertans threatening to break free. The idea of Alberta separation has historically been less about true autonomy than expressing grievances, and even now, a truly separatist Alberta is unlikely, experts say. But Smith may not be wrong that a Liberal victory has the potential to inflame tensions in the province, particularly when you consider the Donald Trump factor.

The U.S. president鈥檚 threats of annexation have changed the conversation, says Lisa Young, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, pointing to polling that suggests Albertans, and conservatives in particular, are more receptive than other Canadians to becoming the 51st state. At just 15 per cent, according to a , support remains low in Alberta 鈥� but much higher than just nine per cent nationally.

鈥淚t鈥檚 one thing to decide to leave a marriage and have to find a new place to live and set up a household and manage on your own. It鈥檚 another thing to leave a marriage and move in with someone else, who鈥檚 already got a place to live and who welcomes you,鈥� she notes.

American chatter about annexation has created the perception for a small but vocal minority that Americans might embrace Alberta 鈥� and its oil 鈥� with open arms, Young adds. One of the criticisms of an independent Alberta is that, whatever you think of Canadian energy policy, a landlocked nation wouldn鈥檛 have much luck exporting oil, either.

But suddenly, Young says, there鈥檚 the potential, at least for a very vocal minority, that Alberta might have somewhere to go.聽

Unlike Quebec鈥檚 struggle for cultural independence, Alberta鈥檚 push for recognition has always been more about economics. Specifically, the idea that the Alberta oil industry fuels so much of the Canadian economy, but is reined in by rules and regulation.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not driven by anger. It鈥檚 almost like a feeling of unrequited love. That鈥檚 the best way to put it,鈥� says Jared Wesley, a political scientist at the University of Alberta, of the sense of alienation some in the province feel. Wesley leads a project called Common Ground, which has been surveying political attitudes in the province since 2019.聽

聽鈥淎lberta feels like the jilted lover in Confederation, in that that they feel like they鈥檙e giving so much and that they don鈥檛 get anything in return.鈥� His team鈥檚 surveys have found that separatist sentiment has trended down under Smith 鈥� to around 10 to 15 per cent of 鈥� to the point where it鈥檚 roughly half of what it was under her predecessor, Jason Kenney. (His numbers also suggest that people answer 鈥測es鈥� out of frustration rather than conviction, he adds, as even among those who say they鈥檇 like to separate, only thinks it鈥檚 actually likely to happen.)

Western alienation isn鈥檛 new. As far back as the 1930s, some farmers on the prairies were pushing for western independence, a wave of frustration not helped by Ontario Premier Mitchell Hepburn of Ontario complaining his province was being used as a 鈥渕ilch cow鈥� (an old term for dairy cow) to support the west. But things really got going 50 years later, when Pierre Elliott Trudeau created the national energy program, which was designed to, among other things, boost federal revenue from oil, but sparked outrage in Alberta. That anger helped birth the Reform Party, co-founded by Manning.

The last spike in separatist sentiment followed the Liberal win in 2019, Wesley adds, when the party, then under Justin Trudeau, managed to squeak through to another victory and Alberta again felt shut out. Manning warned soon after that Liberal win and, with the idea of leaving Canada polling as high as 30 per cent, Kenney let the grassroots movement blow off steam through his , which held consultations across the province on how to get, at least according to Albertans, a more equal shake for the province.

In comparison, the current conversation around separatism feels less like a populist uprising, Wesley says, and more like an attempt by political leadership to push their own goals.聽

While Smith has never come out in full-throated support of leaving Canada, Young says she is 鈥渟eparatist-adjacent鈥� in the sense that she is affiliated with a lot of people who support the idea and has arguably fanned the flames of the frustration that underpins the movement. Speaking to media this week, Smith said that when it came to national unity, other provinces should be taking a page from Alberta鈥檚 book.

She鈥檇 given Carney a list of nine energy-related demands 鈥� it included scrapping a federal cap on oil and gas emissions, eliminating an electric vehicle mandate, and ending prohibitions on single-use plastics 鈥� but said many of those issues applied to other provinces as well.

鈥淚f you go across the country, it鈥檚 difficult to get anything built, any type of critical infrastructure, it鈥檚 difficult to get any type of mining operations approved,鈥� she said.

鈥淲e鈥檝e had 10 years of experience with the Liberals where they have done every possible thing they could to try to keep our oil and gas in the ground or disincentivize investment,鈥� she added. 鈥淚鈥檓 just here to say that ends regardless of who becomes prime minister.鈥� Smith has said she will strike a panel of her own after the election to hear from Albertans and possibly test the waters on a referendum.聽

The issue highlights a split in Canadian conservatism, both regional and ideological. On the campaign trail, Poilievre has distanced himself from Manning鈥檚 latest op-ed, at least, saying: 鈥淲e need to unite the country. We need to bring all Canadians together in a spirit of common ground.鈥�

Wesley notes that the road to a Conservative victory federally is through Alberta, and Poilievre is likely frustrated by the fact that Smith is focusing on regional issues at a time when he鈥檚 trying to pitch himself as putting Canada first.

(Smith was notably absent from a recent Poilievre rally that drew, according to the Conservative Party, as many as 15,000 people, including Stephen Harper, to a small community just outside of Edmonton. A spokesperson for Smith said that while Poilievre鈥檚 message 鈥渃learly鈥� resonates with many Albertans, she had 鈥減rior commitments.鈥�)

It would likely help, Wesley says, if Poilievre spoke out more forcefully against separatism or Smith鈥檚 trips to Mar-A-Lago, but doing so would risk losing the support of those who support of the Alberta leader.聽

Meanwhile, in his first Calgary campaign stop this week Carney donned a white cowboy hat and pitched Alberta as an 鈥渆nergy superpower,鈥� a phrase once wielded by Stephen Harper. The Edmonton-raised Carney has signaled that he is already much more energy-friendly than Trudeau, Young says. While he seems to be trying to appease some of the province鈥檚 grievances, she adds, that does not seem to be Smith鈥檚 view.聽

As much as Smith seems to be getting ready to protest the results of an election that hasn鈥檛 yet been lost, she arguably benefits from having an enemy in Parliament, having come to power on promises to fight back against Ottawa. Public exchanges between the two have already gotten spikey: Carney joked earlier this week about Canada鈥檚 approach to fighting American tariffs, saying that we should send Doug Ford onto Fox News 鈥渢o show them we鈥檙e not messing around up here,鈥� before adding 鈥渕aybe we won鈥檛 send Danielle,鈥� a reference to Smith鈥檚 much more conciliatory approach to negotiations with the Trump administration.聽

Smith that progressive men often talk about supporting women 鈥渦ntil they meet a strong conservative woman.鈥澛�

As Canadians head to the polls after an election contested in the shadow of Trump, particularly if the American government continues to look north as they mull territorial expansion, regional grievances will suddenly become more relevant, Young says.

鈥淎s a geopolitical move, if the Trump administration is serious, then Alberta is the weakest link in Confederation, from their point of view.鈥�