The election of Mark Carney鈥檚 Liberal Party to a fourth term in government sends two messages to Washington.
The first is that Canadians are prepared to fight it out over the threat of economic domination or even abandon the ties binding them to their southern neighbours. The second is that the country has many friends both highly placed and far away who are rooting for Canada鈥檚 success.
But how those messages will be received and acted upon by U.S. President Donald Trump鈥攁n unpredictable leader if ever there was one鈥攊s anyone鈥檚 guess.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney鈥檚 Liberal Party won the federal election, but a historian said the issues swirling around the nation鈥檚 southern neighbor persist. (AP video: Mike Householder / April 29, 2025)
Trump has shown himself to be a man who holds lengthy grudges. At the same time, he is someone who greatly respects displays of strength, ranging from Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s threat to cut hydro to the U.S. to the iron fist rule of authoritarian leaders.
So how will he get along with a Carney, who campaigned almost exclusively on a pledge to punch back against Canada鈥檚 bully-in-chief? And despite the combative context, how can Trump not have grudging respect for a novice politician who took a Liberal Party that was destined for electoral thrashing only to lead it to victory and a fourth term in office?
In both business and politics, Trump hasn鈥檛 hidden his desire to win at all costs (or even to falsely claim victory, in the case of the 2020 presidential election loss).
But with his repeated interventions into Canadian political life, he now stands accused of having tipped the scales in favour of Carney, who was judged by Canadian voters as the leader best suited to defend against threats of American annexation.聽
In his victory speech, Carney said Canada stood at a 鈥渉inge moment鈥 in its history. The country鈥檚 former relationship with the United States, he said, was at an end, as indeed was the global system of open trade in place since the Second World War.
鈥淭hese are tragedies, but it鈥檚 also our new reality,鈥 he said. 鈥淲e are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget the lessons.鈥
The Trump administration has spent weeks boasting that countries around the world menaced by its tariffs have been kowtowing in search of a better trade deal with Washington. In that sense, its hard to see the election of a Canadian leader vowing to uncouple his country’s economy from that of the U.S. as anything but an American miscalculation.
But if Trump escalates rather than abandons his threats, it could usher in a more aggressive new phase in the Canada-U.S. dispute, after having toned down the rhetoric for much of the 37-day Canadian election.
It is hard to imagine him leaving Carney’s Canada in peace with his聽 wishing “good luck to the great people of Canada” before restating his pitch for Canada’s future statehood in order to avoid tariffs, cut taxes and boost the country’s military strength.
So Canada and the Carney government should now brace for Washington to intensify its efforts.
That could take the form of new and additional tariffs designed to weaken Canada鈥檚 economy; the renegotiation or eventual cancellation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico free trade agreement; pulling back from defence cooperation pacts; or challenges to the treaties that divide up the Great Lakes.
Trump has even called into question the 鈥渁rtificial line鈥 known formally as the Canada-U.S. border.
鈥淭he coming days and months will be challenging, and they will call for some sacrifices,鈥 Carney said in his post-election speech. 鈥淏ut we will share those sacrifices by supporting our workers and our businesses.鈥
Carney might also dampen those challenges by reaching out to the many friends and allies who, on Tuesday, took the occasion of the Liberal election win to express solidarity and support for Canada.
The day after a very late Canadian election, 海角社区官网Star Ottawa deputy bureau chief Alex Ballingall and Ottawa bureau reporters Ryan Tumilty, Raisa Patel and Mark Ramzy, sit down with host Althia Raj on the It's Political podcast. Listen to the whole episode and subscriber at
Carney’s friends in high places was always part of his political appeal.
His pre-election whistle-stop tour to Paris and London, where he fraternized with French President Emmanuel Macron and called on British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and King Charles III, emphasized his all-access pedigree. This was particularly important for Canadian voters who would have known little of the rookie Liberal leader and might have struggled to differentiate between the former governor of the Bank of Canada and of England and a sharply-dressed bank teller.
But Carney’s connections will now be crucial if Canada is to successfully withstand America’s economic and political pressure.
The U.K.‘s Starmer wrote in a congratulatory message Tuesday that he was confident the relationship between his country and Canada would continue to grow.
“We will work together to deepen our economic relationship to deliver security for hardworking people in the U.K. and Canada鈥攚hich we were both elected to do,” he wrote.
And France’s Macron had already ditched the more formal French “vous” pronoun to celebrate Carney’s win.
“You embody a strong Canada facing the great challenges of our time. France is thrilled to reinforce the friendship that unites our countries. Excited to get to work along side you, to pull together!”
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen added in her own note that “the bond between Europe and Canada is strong鈥攁nd growing stronger.”
The EU, like Canada, has enacted counter-tariffs against U.S. goods in retaliation against Trump’s trade policies, despite of being hit with “large scale tariffs, far larger than currently planned” if they teamed up to harm the U.S. economy.
Canada is also seeking access to a European defence procurement pact as an alternative to buying American military equipment, while also reconsidering its involvement in the U.S. F-35 fighter jet program.
Carney also received congratulatory messages from influential figures in the private sector, including LinkedIn co-founder and investor Reid Hoffman, a rare Trump critic from the U.S. tech and finance world, and former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg.
Bloomberg and Carney were both special climate advisors to the United Nations Secretary General. Carney was also board chair of Bloomberg’s finance, software and media company of the same name.
Hoffman described Carney as “my longtime friend,” and said: “Leaders with a clear grasp of the global economy are precisely what this moment calls for.”
American politicians were not so immediate with their reaction, perhaps due to the late hour of the election results. One exception was former president Joe Biden, who wrote on social media that he was “confident Mark will be a strong leader for the fundamental values and interests Canadians and Americans share.”
New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristoff offered a tongue-in-cheek reaction to Carney’s election win, writing on X that it was “good to see the Trump administration occasionally having a positive effect abroad.”
But the most ominous warning for Washington came from British CNN business journalist Richard Quest who wrote that he had covered Carney for years and knew him to be “one of the best economists in the world. Perfectly suited to this fight. Calm. Charming. Deliberate and very clever.
“The U.S. will regret this fight.”
