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Grits and Tories both boost seat count

The Liberals and Conservatives both increased their seat count and vote share compared to the 2021 election at the expense of the smaller parties. The NDP saw the biggest loss, dropping to seven seats from 24, while their vote share dropped 11.5 percentage points.

In 2023, the boundaries of Canada’s federal election districts were  to reflect changes and movements in the country’s population. The total number of seats increased from 338 to 343. Elections Canada has  from the 2021 election to the new 2024 boundaries. Comparisons to the 2021 election here use these transposed results.

As the first results began to pour in from Atlantic Canada early Monday night, it quickly became apparent that the Conservatives might do better than public-opinion polls suggested.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, the Tories gained one of the province’s seven seats from the Liberals, doubling their tally there. While Prince Edward Island’s four seats stayed with the Grits, New Brunswick, as in 2021, remained split with six Liberals and four Tories.

But Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s frosty relations with Nova Scotia Progressive Conservative Premier Tim Houston appeared to cost the federal Tories seats in that province. There are now 10 Liberal MPs from Nova Scotia and one Tory, down from three in 2021.

In Quebec, despite Prime Minister Mark Carney’s shaky French — and the concerted effort the bilingual Poilievre put in the province — the Liberals won 44 of the province’s 78 seats, up from 35 four years ago.

The Grits’ gains came at the expense of the Bloc Québécois, which lost 10 seats, falling to 22 MPs from 32 in 2021. Still, BQ Leader Yves-François Blanchet outperformed some polls that suggested his separatist party could be wiped out amid concerns about Canadian sovereignty being threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump. The Conservatives picked up one seat, boosting their tally to 11 and the New Democrats clung to their only seat in Quebec.

Overall, as of Tuesday evening, the Liberals have won 42.6 per cent of the popular vote in la belle province, compared to 27.7 per cent for the Bloc, 23.3 per cent for the Tories and 4.5 per cent for the NDP.

In Ontario, despite friction with Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives — and Poilievre losing his Ottawa-area riding of Carleton — the Conservative did better than expected in places like Brampton, York, Durham, London, Windsor and Timmins. The Tories even won Toronto’s York Centre and came close in Eglinton-Lawrence.

The New Democrats, who are the official opposition party provincially, were wiped out federally, losing all five ridings they held in Hamilton, London, Windsor and Northern Ontario.

With incomplete results and some tight races in Brampton, the Liberals won 69 of Ontario’s 122 seats, down from the 78 they secured in 2021. The Tories won the other 53 ridings up for grabs here, up from 37 four years ago. That included key pickups at the expense of the Liberals in York Region.

The Greens lost their only Ontario seat in Kitchener Centre, which was another Tory win.

Overall, the Liberals won 49 per cent of the popular vote in Ontario to 43.8 per cent for the Tories and 4.9 per cent for the NDP.

In Manitoba, the Liberals made some prairie gains by harvesting two NDP ridings and now have six of the province’s 14 seats, up from four, leaving the New Democrats with only one. That’s despite having a popular NDP premier in Wab Kinew.

The Conservatives were steady at seven, repeating their 2021 tally.

Next door in Saskatchewan, which had been solidly Tory in 2021, when they won all 14 ridings, the Liberals picked up the redrawn northern riding of Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River.

In Alberta, long a Tory stronghold, native son Carney’s hopes of a breakthrough in his home province failed to materialize.

The Tories won 34 of Alberta’s expanded 37 seats, including a pickup from the NDP in Edmonton. The Liberals won Calgary Confederation and Edmonton Centre, but George Chahal, who had represented Calgary Skyview since 2021, lost in the new riding of Calgary McKnight.

Polls had suggested the Liberals could win up to five Alberta seats, but the Tories won 63.4 per cent of the vote to just 27.9 per cent for the Liberals.

In British Columbia, where NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, placing third, lost his Burnaby Central seat to the Liberals by a wide margin, the two main parties divided the spoils.

The Liberals won 20 of the B.C.‘s 43 ridings to 19 for the Tories. There were three New Democrats elected and Green Leader Elizabeth May won what is now her party’s only seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands on Vancouver Island.

Both the Liberals and the Tories improved their results from 2021 at the expense of the New Democrats. In 2021, when there were only 42 B.C. seats, the Liberals won 15, the Tories and NDP each took 13 and there was May’s Green riding.

Overall, in B.C., the Liberals won 41.8 per cent of the popular vote to 41 per cent for the Tories, 13.1 per cent for the New Democrats, who are in power provincially in B.C., and three per cent for the Greens.