MONTREAL - The Liberals on election night were on track for their best showing in Quebec in a decade, but their gains in the province looked unlikely to be enough to clinch a majority government, while the balance of power seemed within reach for the Bloc Qu茅b茅cois.
In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the Liberals were leading or elected in 43 of Quebec’s 78 ridings 鈥 their best result since the 2015 election, when they swept 40 ridings, and ten more than at the dissolution of Parliament.
The sovereigntist Bloc Qu茅b茅cois, meanwhile, was on track to win about 23 seats 鈥 down from the 33 it held going into the campaign, but likely enough to afford it the balance of power in a Liberal minority government.
Speaking to supporters in Montreal shortly before 1 a.m., Bloc Leader Yves-Fran莽ois Blanchet said the party could be “extraordinarily important” in the next Parliament.聽
“Canada must 鈥 ensure that Quebec’s interests are respected. It must, in all matters, bring together the interests of Quebec and Canada,” he said. “Otherwise, there will be no support from the Bloc Qu茅b茅cois.”
By 2 a.m., the Liberals under leader Mark Carney were ahead in about 167 ridings 鈥 just shy of the 172 needed to form a majority. The party’s strong performance in Quebec shows the province “over-delivered” for the Liberals, who fared worse than they’d hoped in Ontario, said Jeremy Ghio, a political analyst and former Liberal staffer.
In his victory speech in Ottawa around 1:30 a.m., Carney said, “The French language and Quebec culture are at the heart of Canadian identity. They define the country I love so much, and I will defend them tirelessly. We will ensure that Quebec continues to prosper within a strong Canada.”
The collapse of the NDP vote across the country, with the party leading or elected in just seven ridings hours after polls closed, meant it was uncertain whether the party would hold enough seats to be a dancing partner for the Liberals.聽
The results are the best the Bloc could have expected, Ghio said, despite the loss of seats. Earlier in the campaign, with public attention focused on U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation, polling suggested the party was at risk of winning fewer than the 12 seats it needed to retain official party status.聽
The Canadian Press decision desk has projected the Liberal Party of Canada will form the next government, but has not projected whether it will be a minority.聽
Meanwhile, the Conservatives were elected in 11 ridings, mostly in and around Quebec City, up from the nine they held at the dissolution of Parliament. The NDP was elected in one riding.
Several Liberal ministers from Quebec easily won re-election, including Finance Minister Fran莽ois-Philippe Champagne, Foreign Affairs Minister M茅lanie Joly, Canadian Culture Minister Steven Guilbeault, Employment Minister Steven MacKinnon and Immigration Minister Rachel Bendayan. Former ministers Jean-Yves Duclos and Marc Miller were also re-elected.聽
However, the Bloc managed an upset in Gasp茅sie鈥擫es 脦les-de-la-Madeleine鈥擫istuguj, where its candidate Alexis Desch锚nes, a lawyer and former journalist, unseated ex-Liberal minister Diane Lebouthillier.
Blanchet was re-elected in his South Shore riding, as was Bloc MP Louis Plamondon, the longest-serving current member of the House of Commons.聽
The Liberals took several Bloc-held seats around the Island of Montreal, including the riding of La Prairie鈥擜tateken, held by Bloc House leader Alain Therrien. The suburban ridings around Montreal are traditionally friendly to the Bloc, and political observers were looking to it as a bellwether region.聽
Ghio said the Liberals won almost all the ridings they could have realistically hoped to flip in Quebec. He also pointed to a few surprises, including in Trois-Rivi猫res, a city on the St. Lawrence River between Montreal and Quebec City. The riding was expected to be a close three-way race between the Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc incumbent, but Liberal candidate Caroline Desrochers won handily, with about 40 per cent of the vote.聽
In Quebec City, the Liberals also pulled off an unexpected win in the Bloc-held riding of Beauport鈥擫imoilou.聽
Two star Liberal candidates 鈥 脡cole Polytechnique survivor Nathalie Provost and former Quebec finance minister Carlos Leit茫o 鈥 were also elected in ridings outside Montreal.
On the Island of Montreal, mostly a Liberal bastion, the party easily reclaimed LaSalle鈥斆塵ard鈥擵erdun, which the Bloc had managed to flip during a byelection last September. However, the Bloc did manage to hold one riding on the eastern tip of the island.聽
NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, the party’s lone member in the province, was re-elected in the Montreal riding of Rosemont鈥擫a Petite-Patrie.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 28, 2025.聽
鈥 With files from Morgan Lowrie in Montreal
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