Robin V. Sears was an NDP strategist for 20 years and later served as a communications adviser to businesses and governments on three continents. He is a freelance contributing columnist for the Star. .
This was the most gruesome election night for the NDP since the Diefenbaker sweep in 1958. Many great MPs went down to defeat, one may hope many will return. The Liberals gained 11 points and the NDP lost the same. Its collapse allowed Liberal leader Mark Carney to be elected prime minister.
But the party with the greatest right to be enraged with the results is the Conservatives. They gained many votes and elected many new MPs, but were still defeated. Their leader was defeated in his own riding. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh鈥檚 resignation on election night was gracious, if unavoidable. Pierre Poilievre鈥檚 decision to stay on as Conservative leader (and to likely force one of his MPs to give up their seat) was neither.
Poilievre’s motive seems clear. He plans to badger and harangue Carney with as much venom and spite as he spent years throwing at Justin Trudeau, hoping that the new prime minister will stumble, his minority will collapse and Poilievre will triumph in a rematch. That won鈥檛 happen, but such chaos could be disastrous for his party and for Canada.
At a moment when the federal government is going to war with a powerful and determined enemy, Poilievre鈥檚 parliamentary tactics 鈥 denounce, delay, and paralyze 鈥 would be welcome fodder for U.S. President Donald Trump. He is a man experienced at sowing and reaping the rewards from a divided enemy.
One can imagine Poilievre holding up Parliament, again, on a key counter attack against Trump. The consequences for Canada鈥檚 ability to win this war we are now entering, could be disastrous. Trump is a master at divide and conquer.
This frustrating result has a clear message for his party: elect a new leader. You cannot sustain party unity with a defeated leader, hated by two elected Tory premiers. Tim Houston does not govern a large province, but his popularity is much wider than Nova Scotia. He sent a glowing message to Carney within hours of his election.
But the more serious division is that . Ontario’s premier has open contempt for his federal leader and worked to undermine him during this election. It didn鈥檛 work in Ontario, where the Conservatives did much better than forecast. This will only further enrage Ontario Tories. Back in the day, Premier Bill Davis conducted cordial back channel negotiations with Pierre Trudeau. However, he avoided directly attacking Joe Clark, even though the mutual dislike was undeniable.
Then there is Poilievre鈥檚 personal unpopularity, or his 鈥渇undamental unlikeability鈥 as Ford鈥檚 campaign manager, Kory Teneycke, put it.
With a gap of often more than 20 points between him and Carney on who would be best to lead the nation, it鈥檚 clear that Canadians did not want to risk putting Poilievre聽charge at this dangerous moment. His defeat in his own riding further underlines what a boat anchor he is for Canadian Conservatives.
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His new caucus is the only one that has the ability to eject him as leader. Kudos to those Conservatives MPs who had the courage to support Conservative MP Michael Chong鈥檚 reforms to make that accountability real. Liberal MPs have no leverage over their leader鈥檚 fate as the painful, slow bloodletting of Justin Trudeau, in a death of a thousand cuts, revealed.
The Conservatives have several attractive candidates to lead their party, each of whom will no doubt start “outreach” efforts, a few days from now. Imagine how much more compelling an offer the Tories could make, as Carney learns he is not superman, if they were led by a big city, likeable MP.
So, we may see a united front, facing down Trump with one voice, led by a prime minister in harness with opposition leaders, and 12 out of 13 premiers. Or maybe it will be Poilievre and Danielle Smith arm-in-arm, in Washington, as Trump鈥檚 preferred negotiation partners, shattering Canadian unity.
One consolation is that minority governments rarely last more than two years, so we may return to a more balanced Parliament soon. And Trump will be clobbered in next year鈥檚 midterms. Then maybe we can all breath again.
Opinion articles are based on the author鈥檚 interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details
Robin V. Sears was an NDP strategist for 20 years and later
served as a communications adviser to businesses and governments on
three continents. He is a freelance contributing columnist for the
Star. .
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