Allan Gregg is a public opinion pollster, principal at Earnscliffe Strategies and co-host of the 鈥淩ed-Tory鈥 podcast.
By now, it is pretty clear that the 25-point lead Pierre Poilievre enjoyed in the polls a mere four months ago had very little to do with him. He looked like a shoo-in to be the Prime Minister of Canada because he faced an extremely unpopular opponent and was catering to a very disgruntled electorate who were focused on their personal grievances. But remove the opponent, have voter鈥檚 concerns shift from past angers to future uncertainties and his massive electoral edge disappeared.
In fact, even when he was leading, it was evident that Canadians were not particularly enamoured with Poilievre the person聽鈥 his favourability ratings never exceeded his negatives.
But there is also little evidence that Canadians feared the prospects of him leading the country. Rather, it is his divisiveness and performative rhetoric that was off-putting and considered inappropriate for both the times and the temperament of Canadian political discourse.
Regardless of whether he was riding high in the pre-writ polls or trailing in the election campaign, he continued to outperform both Trudeau and Carney on two key leadership attributes: namely, which leader 鈥渟hares my values鈥 and 鈥渦nderstands what people like me are going through.鈥 His manner might have been rejected by most Canadians, but not his priorities or overarching agenda.
And let鈥檚 also not overlook the fact that even though he lost his own seat, the Conservatives attracted more Canadians voting under his leadership than they did when Stephen Harper won his majority in 2010, or that he improved his party鈥檚 seat count by 25 over the last election.
Look next where we gained these votes and who lives in these areas.
He picked up seats聽鈥 largely held previously by the NDP聽鈥 in Nova Scotia, Southwest and Northern Ontario and on the Western-most coast. At the risk of oversimplifying, these are ridings that are made up of miners, autoworkers and loggers.
He also made surprise gains at the winning Liberal鈥檚 expense in the growing suburbs of 海角社区官网with high concentrations of new Canadians聽鈥 largely of Sikh and Hindu backgrounds.
This geographic pattern聽鈥 and private polling聽鈥 indicates that Poilievre is attracting blue collar workers and new Canadians to the Conservatives in numbers not seen in the last 15 years.
This did not happen by accident. His focus on 鈥淏oots not Suits鈥 and his ability to speak directly to the concerns of voters who are most likely to feel they are being let down by 鈥渢he system鈥 and defenders of the status quo, underscores the fact that he recognizes these segments of the population represent the Conservatives鈥 only pathway to electoral success. Perhaps even more important to his continued leadership of the party, these election results demonstrate that when he speaks to these voters and their concerns, they are listening.
The loss of his own seat unquestionably is a set-back and underscores his weaknesses as a leader. The message he should take from this is humility not high dudgeon聽鈥 to acknowledge that he needs to be more of a builder and not just a disruptor聽鈥 and that he has to add empathy, understanding and hope to his criticism of his opponent鈥檚 failings.
Is he, by temperament and personality, capable of this transformation? I don鈥檛 know. But if he is, the Conservatives would be well advised to stick with him.
Opinion articles are based on the author鈥檚 interpretations and judgments of facts, data and events. More details
Allan Gregg is a public opinion pollster, principal at
Earnscliffe Strategies and co-host of the 鈥淩ed-Tory鈥 podcast.
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