As moral victories go, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre may be justifiably proud to have shamed the Liberals into reversing themselves on several significant policy errors in recent months 鈥 even if his tireless efforts didn鈥檛 translate to a set of keys to the Prime Minister鈥檚 Office. Yet while moral victories might keep the NDP afloat, Conservatives play to win.
Despite Poilievre鈥檚 luxurious lead time and his party鈥檚 bottomless chequebook, electoral victory never came, and two worthy schools of thought will emerge in the wake of a shocking few weeks.
Poilievre fans will fairly trumpet that his 41 per cent vote share is the Tories鈥 highest since 2003, when the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged to form the current Conservative Party of Canada.
With NDP support having fallen by two-thirds, there鈥檚 no question that Poilievre faced an uphill climb, given traditional progressive voting patterns. I鈥檓 not a fan of Poilievre鈥檚 鈥淏oots Not Suits鈥 slogan, but his unrelenting focus on working-class audiences appears to have paid off in traditionally tough ridings around Hamilton, Sudbury and Windsor 鈥 and that鈥檚 a fabulous building block.
Without U.S. President Donald Trump as his foil, it鈥檚 unclear what Mark Carney would have pitched to voters beyond pinky-promising to deliver on refried Liberal announcements, plus ideas he lifted from the Conservatives, such as reversing the job-killing increase to the capital gains tax rate.
Another distinguishing feature of this election is that it was the first in 18 consecutive outings in which the federal party that won the most seats in Quebec wasn鈥檛 led by a man born in that province. Carney can thank Trump for that assist. Meanwhile, Jamil Jivani, the Tory MP for Bowmanville鈥揙shawa North, Ontario Premier Doug Ford for 鈥渟abotaging the Conservative campaign鈥 in Canada鈥檚 largest province.
For the Tory candidates who suffered a 30-point negative swing in less than four months, a combination of anger, disappointment and confusion will reign. Do they blame Trump? Their Leader? His campaign team? The media? Back-biting from Ford鈥檚 camp?
Some members of the 鈥渨oulda, coulda, shoulda鈥 crowd will argue that one of Poilievre鈥檚 key errors was to demean former Progressive Conservative leader Jean Charest during the leadership race in 2022, when it would have been so easy to let him lose with dignity. Had Poilievre embraced Charest and recruited him to be his Quebec lieutenant, would French Canadian voters have had somewhere else to turn besides Carney? Charest鈥檚 presence might also have mollified voters who are clearly more comfortable with the Progressive Conservative tradition, including in places like Nova Scotia, where Premier Tim Houston just netted another majority government.
Another key missed opportunity was the decision not to trek down to Washington to meet with Vice-President JD Vance, in private, to show worried voters that Poilievre could play pro ball. Ford got points for trying.
The Conservative team raised $77 million over a two-year period, but that historic haul didn鈥檛 translate to an effective 鈥渃arpet bombing鈥 pre-writ ad buy, as promised. And some party donors are asking why the few members of the business community who did throw their hats into the ring, such as CI Private Wealth鈥檚 Robert Pierce, weren鈥檛 showcased so as to counter the media narrative that Team Carney had a monopoly on 鈥渞eal-world experience.鈥
There鈥檚 also the subjective quality of 鈥渓ikability.鈥 Following a day of door-knocking in a very competitive midtown 海角社区官网riding last week, former Conservative deputy leader Lisa Raitt , 鈥淲hat they鈥檙e not thrilled about, unfortunately, is our leader.鈥 That Poilievre鈥檚 positioning didn鈥檛 win over viable 海角社区官网ridings but did flip a bunch of suburban 905 seats warrants objective analysis.
that Stephen Harper鈥檚 2011 majority reflected a political 鈥渞ealignment鈥 of the Canadian populace, clear-eyed Tories will recall that it was the late NDP leader Jack Layton鈥檚 popularity that delivered 10 seats to the Conservatives in 海角社区官网and overwhelmed the Liberals in Quebec. The Tory message fell short again this week in Canada鈥檚 largest city, as it has for decades, but Poilievre and his wife have the opportunity to spend the next 12 to 24 months ensuring that the party鈥檚 GTA candidates win more tight races next time.
Just over a year ago, I explained to Star readers that Poilievre鈥檚 鈥渟uperpower was that he just doesn鈥檛 care what 鈥榳e鈥 (elites) might think of him.鈥 He set his sights on winning over those who turn wrenches for a living, and the strategy worked.
Despite losing his seat, Poilievre has earned the right to 鈥渓earn the lessons鈥 of this campaign, as he promised supporters he would on election night.
His next challenge is to grow the tent.
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